Shiller comparing current situation to Great...

Uploaded by: RemiG2006
Video Description:
... Depression prelude!
1/29/2008
___________________________________
Housing Bust Recovery in 1930s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlkOPAa4Mao
___________________________________
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3a6ad6d0-d014-11dc-9309-0000779fd2ac.html
US consumers in cautious mood
By James Politi in Washington
Published: January 31 2008 16:12 | Last updated: January 31 2008 16:12
The sharp slowdown in the US economy was highlighted on Thursday as fresh data showed that consumer spending rose a meagre 0.2 per cent in December and jobless claims moved unexpectedly higher last week.
The data on consumer spending from the commerce department, though slightly above expectations, was the weakest since September 2006, and contrasted with a 1.1 per cent gain in November. It confirmed that even as retailers tried to attract customers with heavy discounts during the holiday season, US consumers spent cautiously.
Personal income rose 0.5 per cent in December, also slightly above expectations.
The personal consumption expenditure price index, excluding food and energy, rose 2.2 per cent, providing evidence that inflation could remain a concern for US policymakers.
Recession fears came sharply into focus this week after it emerged that the US economy grew by 0.6 per cent in the fourth quarter. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut interest rates by 50 basis points - on top of its 75 basis point emergency easing of monetary policy last week -- in an effort to tackle the slowdown.
Among economic indicators, one relatively bright spot recently was the weekly jobless claims data. But on Thursday, it emerged that the number of workers who filed for unemployment benefits last week rose sharply, by 71,000 jobs, to 375,000, or the most since Hurricane Katrina hit in September 2005.
"After a series of low-side readings this increase clearly raises fresh questions about the health of the labour market," said JPMorgan's economics research team. On Friday, the US government will release its monthly jobs report, which could provide economists with a better reading of employment trends.
___________________________________
Housing Meltdown
Why home prices could drop 25% more on average before the market finally hits bottom
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_06/b4070040767516.htm
___________________________________

Tags for this video: Ben Bernanke FED Shiller

Find more videos in the "Education" category
See more videos uploaded by RemiG2006

Related Videos

Shiller on Paulson homeowner bailout plan - 1	Robert Shiller: 'More tough times ahead for the US'	3/1 CNN Your Money: Talks of Great Depression Coming

One Possible Economic Future (1/2)	CNBC - Marc Faber on Global Credit Bubble - 10.22.07 [3/3]	Economics Roundtable: Robert Shiller

Share This Video:

Comments for this video: Show || Hide

Comments for this video on YouTube

Look at the ... ( 9 months ago by spineboy)

Look at the Case-Shiller graph for a truly frightening view of how enormous the housing bubble has been. Expect prices to fall 50% or more in the bubble market areas (Cali/Fla/Vegas/etc)

It comes in at the ... ( 9 months ago by spineboy)

It comes in at the 5 minute mark. Housing prices are typically 2.5-2.8 times the average income for an area.
Average income in Los Angeles is $48k that means prices should be around $150K, and not $450K. Expect a correction almost back to the mean, when corrected for inflation.

"When corrected for ... ( 9 months ago by codediporpal)

"When corrected for inflation" That's the kicker. I bet at least half of this property value correction will be done by inflation.

Shiller and Schiff ... ( 9 months ago by JP5466)

Shiller and Schiff called this whole thing years ago. So many scoffed at them for that prediction. The people who bought homes in 2005/2006 are getting bled dry.

If you buy now, you ... ( 9 months ago by lennyfest)

If you buy now, you will find a house like the one you bought for $100K or more less than what you paid. You effectively will be catching a falling knife and become instantly underwater on your mortgage! Imagine going to the bank and asking, "I'd like to open an account for minus (-)$100K". After years of deposits adding up to $100K you will have $0 in the account. Silly isn't it? Well that is exactly what you will be doing if you bought a house right now.

She talks way too ... ( 9 months ago by Snark17)

She talks way too much...

He should stick to ... ( 9 months ago by frankxxx)

He should stick to pumping out useful graphs because his verbal answers to her questions simply did not provide any useful additional info.

LOL! did they edit ... ( 8 months ago by landongendur)

LOL! did they edit out his "inflation" word at 5:04-5:05?!
What a scary word! Dun Dun Dun!

Whoops, sorry. I ... ( 8 months ago by landongendur)

Whoops, sorry. I meant "recession". No idea where that inflation thing came from.

The U.S. government ... ( 7 months ago by TYX91101)

The U.S. government was for all intents and purposes solvent in 1932. We now sit on the biggest debt load in the universe. 20% of the American work force is employed by the government. Unemployment will severely restrict tax revenues at all levels. There will be no money available for the government to borrow. What do you think the result of these factors will be?

He now says that it ... ( 7 months ago by deathmetalpat)

He now says that it will be worst than the Great Depression.Prices will need to fall to something like 1999-2000 levels.The whole time span since 2000 has been some kind of weird dream and now people are waking up.

The problem is ... ( 7 months ago by Mennion3)

The problem is greed. People wanted to make money out of nothing, so they played with numbers in the values of everything. The value of a currency, the value of a home, the value of fuel. They inflate all these numbers so that they can buy from the low and sell high because everyone needs these things. With the profit they made, they didn't use it on building industry or creating more jobs but to again invest it in these non material numbers...

...while every ... ( 7 months ago by Mennion3)

...while every working man and woman wonders why is everything so expensive? Why is it so expensive to buy a home? Why is a carton of milk so expensive and the gas is so expensive? It's the war they say, and they're right. Taxes that should have been spent on business infrastructure, creating jobs are wasted on bombs and rockets. Each rocket costed maybe 100 jobs for 10 years. Enough to buy a home and feed a family. Enough so that only one parent has to work while the other can stay home

Yet people still ... ( 7 months ago by Mennion3)

Yet people still don't see the problems we face and quarrel over things that don't matter. They point their finger at their spouse and point their finger at the bank manager who is just doing what he's told as stock brokers continue to inflate the numbers. Sorry the numbers don't lie madam, we need to forclose your home. I'm sorry, but I don't know where you'll sleep tonight; while a vice president gets away with 3 million dollars in his connections with those same stock brokers and companies

So the everyday ... ( 7 months ago by Mennion3)

So the everyday person continues to work and fight each other for every little crumb dropped. This they did for decades, almost a century now.
Now the people on top a panicking, these people on TVs and talk shows. They are panicking that went too far and that the market will burst. Like all food chains, the people on top, the predators also needed the preys or they themselves would starve.

The prey, these ... ( 7 months ago by Mennion3)

The prey, these everyday ordinary people can't pay for these inflated prices anymore. Their jobs can't afford it, these parents who worked from Monday to Saturday on 12 hour shifts with young children to feed. They can't give anymore to satisfy the predators on top and these market will burst like a bush fire in the African savanah. It'll ravage and kill all until the rain comes and the cycle comes again. And these predators are afraid, will they find redemption when they become prey?

But of course these ... ( 7 months ago by Mennion3)

But of course these predators won't let that happen even when hungry children walk this earth. How many gallons of milk went sour to inflate these imaginary numbers? How many fruits were left unpicked as hungry men wander the street looking for something, anything to get their minds away from their miseries?

While everyone turn ... ( 7 months ago by Mennion3)

While everyone turn their backs and thank God that they are not those Godless men, all the same time the stock options of Halliburton double as men in suits who do no work but play with numbers gets a salary that can feed a thousand men for a month. All men created equal indeed.
At the end, my only question for you is this.
Are you angry yet?

The "housing" ... ( 6 months ago by ourearthhome)

The "housing" crisis is really a land speculation crisis. If it was just about "houses", the improvements, there could no run up of prices since the supply of "houses" has been increasing. Remember supply and demand? The cost should have come down. But no, the cost went up and what went up was the cost of the land. The value that is going down is the speculative cost of land. The house itself does not appreciate in value more than the cost of building. Thank the AEA for clouding the issue

This whole debacle ... ( 2 months ago by amotisi8859)

This whole debacle was created by the federal reserve, which NEEDS to be destroyed and its board of govenors need to be tared and feathered at the very least!!!

We must preserve ... ( 1 month ago by GA7777777)

We must preserve housing values or we will have another Great Depression.

not gonna happen... ( 1 month ago by stonerj0e)

not gonna happen...

he's thankful for ... ( 1 month ago by stonerj0e)

he's thankful for ben bernanke ?!??!! LOL !!!

thank you for this ... ( 1 month ago by smkuhner)

thank you for this video

Tell a friend:

URL
Embed Code